Cities and Water
Recently, we left a beach on the East Coast one day early to stay one day ahead of Hurricane Ian. Thankfully, things worked out brilliantly. We stayed ahead of the storm(s), returned over the mountain range back to the Midwest without much disruption at all. Hurricane Ian reminded us of the incredible devastation water can have on coastal cities. And that's just in the U.S. Consider the devastation of water on coastal cities globally.
Now factor in a sobering thought: people are moving towards those cities, not away from them.
"Cities have become a gigantic engine of change, a catalyst for the end of the world as we know it. Cities occupy 1 percent of the world’s land yet are home to about 55 percent of the human population. Told another way, the total landmass on Earth is 196.9 million square miles and cities account for roughly 2 million of those. With 4 billion urban residents, that’s an average of 2,000 people per square mile in cities, which is quite a crowd. Cities account for 75 percent of total energy consumption and 80 percent of total carbon emissions. They also disproportionately contribute to global warming with their closely packed buildings and surfaces paved with asphalt and concrete, which trap more heat—a process known as the “heat island effect.” And these are based on current figures. Looking ahead, trends indicate that urbanization is on the rise. Each week, the population of cities around the world grows by 1.5 million people, which means a new round of construction, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. In 2017, there were twenty-nine cities with more than 10 million people. By 2030, there will be forty-three of them, and fourteen will be home to more than 20 million. Cities tend to exacerbate inequality. As they become the norm worldwide, we will be inching closer to potentially catastrophic social and climate crises."
Guillen, Mauro F.. 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything (pp. 124-125). St. Martin's Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
When reading other futurists, the prognosis isn't just bleak regarding water and city impact. It's apocalyptic. Some cities (Hong Kong and others) are actually building sub complexes designed to float on the water. Flotation is good...as long as there are no massive water disasters. It's difficult to "ride" 20 ft. waves and keep your dishes in your cupboard. The truth is, when most people think of rising water levels, they think of Venice, Italy. Problematic? Sure. But still visitable and enchanting.
They're thinking wrongly.
Here's a World Economic Forum article to help correct some of that thinking: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/coastal-cities-underwater-climate-change/
Forget what you think about climate change and for a moment just focus on pragmatism. If water is a problem for coastal cities, and people continue flocking to said cities, then things become complicated quickly. Picture L.A.'s homeless communities and Beverly Hills communities figuring out how to live side-by-side with a rising water table.
Logistics is just one complication. I'm not talking about the regulatory complications on the rise from regionalism (also coined as 'de-globalization'), but literal storage complications. What do you do with goods stocked in warehouses if those warehouses are sitting in a foot or more of water? Keep them on ships? If so, what does that do for the speed of the shipping industry and for moving goods and services across oceans? Movement is another. If trains or subways (New York, I'm looking at you) are strained to due to water issues, new systems must be found. You either dig deeper (think: oceanic tunnels). Or establish water taxis (Venice) and drones (Uber - 200 already approved, as are air traffic lanes by the gov't) to move people around. Add that many of the world's cities are built on swamps (Chicago, New York, etc.). Churches may just as likely find themselves gathering on boats as in buildings.
What's are (some) implications on mission and strategy?
1. Many U.S. churches are "urban-illiterate." They appreciate suburbs. They romanticize rural churches. But they don't really understand the value of cities, nor how to add value to cities. Time to study. Like them or not, it's where people are moving.
2. In missions, there has always been a distinction between past time travel and future time travel. Missions tends to move from the present to the past. Most churches or Christian NGOs look to help poorer communities, where dollars go farther, and social help (in various forms) is welcome because governmental infrastructure is poor. And that's a great thing because helping is good. But water doesn't care if you are in the future, present, or past. Churches everywhere are going to have to navigate disasters. We need global networks to figure out how to both help church members who lose everything, while also helping those church members to be missionaries to neighbors losing everything. The best witness happens "alongside of." How the Christian emotionally and relationally handles disasters personally should stand in contrast to the non-Christian. But it's going to require good Biblical training, perspective, and preparation. The church is under-prepared.
3. Bible training centers globally will need to consider implementing courses on city psychology, urban planning, and crisis management. We need to train leaders to add value to coming conversations so that they are desired voices in the room when the city is seeking solutions.
4. At some point, a monetary figure as a solution becomes so exorbitant that it as becomes nonsensical as a viable option. Missions will need to think beyond "raise money" because costs will be in the trillions to rebuild. Instead, we need to better think through "add value" solutions. Some of those solutions will be practical. Some will be theoretical. All will be, by necessity, relational.
