De-Globalization?
Recent supply chain issues and the fragility of interdependence due to the forces of globalization have caused a reaction. Some are calling this "de-globalization" (Zeihan, Peter. 2022. The End of the World is Just the Beginning. New York: HarperCollins Publishers)(Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/losers-deglobalization), etc. Others are calling the future to a new form of regionalism (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/era-globalization-over-michael-weidokal/, etc.). Gallo (2022) states bluntly, "Regionalization is the new globalization." (https://www.ie.edu/insights/articles/regionalization-is-the-new-globalization-and-it-is-latin-americas-opportunity/)
Altman and Bastian (HBR 2022) have a more nuanced approach:
Globalization has always been an uneven process, with cross-country differences and international conflicts significantly dampening international flows. That’s a big part of why — even before the present crisis — only about 20% of global economic output ended up in a different country from where it was produced. The growth and geographic reach of international flows can rise and fall over time, but the fundamental drivers of success in global strategy remain unchanged. (https://hbr.org/2022/04/the-state-of-globalization-in-2022)
The challenge with regionalism is that it assumes geography is the best way to understand partnership in shipping and trade. But it ignores culture and information. For example, in a world where the Ukraine can be a part of NATO, that is hardly about an Eastern Bloc. The future ahead may not be as interdependent as they are currently, precisely because of misaligned values. In a post-truth world, values (how we identify which values unite us, and which countries or (more futuristically accurate, cities) align in their values will drive allegiances, exchanges and partnerships. Remember, though de-globalization impacts slow-cargo shipping (which is major), it does not necessarily slow down distance and travel (Diamandis, Kotler. 2020. The Future is Faster Than You Think. New York: Simon & Schuster). Therefore, the world will not be aligned according to geographic regions, but of geographic strategies and values alignments. It will be less "block" alliances and more "tiled" alliances, wherein the patterns weave depending on values.
Are we in a transitionary period? Yes and no. Some may argue we've already transitioned. But I would argue we're enroute, and that globalization is not dead (not by a long shot). But it's current re-alignment may be the best argument against cosmopolitanism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmopolitanism).
