Demographic Destiny

I've been reading the work of several futurists, all of whom reference global aging and demographic shifts as having a major global impact. That impact is obviously predictable. There's no hidden science in the prediction. We know a crisis is coming because everyone impacted is already born. A massive wave of aging boomers will strain global health care services, Social Security frameworks, and a whole host of other issues. The global demographic impact won't be a ripple, but a tsunami.

• "By 2030 China will have 90 million fewer people between the ages of fifteen and thirty-five and 150 million more people above the age of sixty."1
• "The reality is that by 2030 we will be facing a baby drought." 2
• "People don’t stop aging just because times are good. The slowly aging demography of the United States and the moderately aging demographies of Japan and the Europeans and the quickly aging demographies of the advanced developing world all converge on mass retirement in the 2020s and 2030s. And when they retire—when all of them retire at once—they will stop providing the capital that has fueled our world. At about the same time the United States stops holding up the ceiling." 3
• "There’s no geopolitical forecast here. It is basic math. The majority of the men and women in the world’s mature worker bulge—those all-important Baby Boomers—will hit retirement in the first half of the 2020s. Retirees no longer have new income to invest." 4
• https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
  
• https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/demographic-future
• https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/economy/global-economy/changing-global-demographics-the-certain-future/

I could (easily) keep referencing and quoting. For a time, I worked with a couple of brilliant guys at SIR in a division called, "The Boomer Project." Aging demography and its implications on everyone everywhere was our bread-and-butter.

Rather than rehash well-trodden territory, let me suggest a couple of strategic implications. First, older people mean a potentially older missions force and (for many parts of the world) an older mission field. Historically, missionaries often transition Stateside to care for aging parents. How missionaries handle that responsibility and the strain it will place on them emotionally and relationally will increase, not decrease. Second, it impacts how we relate "spacially." By this, I mean how we physically move around in the world (curbs, signage, products, lines in airports, etc.). Thankfully, travel technologies are reducing travel times (travel time reduction comes with its own complications on proximity and missiology - I'll discuss that in another blog). But most are ill-prepared for a world where we have to specially understand the challenges of an aging population, as well as, the patience/empathy required to navigate it. Just reflect for a moment on a visit to your grandparents. Regardless of how cool they are, they have different challenges that require understanding and adjustment.

The good news is that a large part of the future missions force may be a more mature missions force. Though this isn't necessarily correlated with spiritual maturity, it likely means a greater perspective on realities abroad, which means less of the "disappointment gap" so many missionaries face when expectations and realities clash. Older people tend not to romanticize missions because have lived through more change. "No internet" may be inconvenient, but it's not crippling.

What can we do today to prepare for tomorrow?

Individuals:
1. Decide how you want to finish your life. Do you want to fall forward on mission or fall backward on a sofa? Think through not just the financial burden, but the legacy of faith and example you seek to set for the future.

2. Millennials and Boomers are both notoriously complex and self-oriented generations. They also clash most in the workplace. Both are a source of frustration to the other. Start thinking about intentionally 1) understanding, and 2) disagreeing respectfully with each other. Lay some ground rules for engagement to build bridges based on your mutual followship of Jesus.

Churches:
1. Missions pastors need to figure out how to mobilize older people and increase the clarity of their communication to them regarding short-term trip expectations. In the past, missions objective "fluidity" was a part of the "missions experience." But older people are a little more savvy in telling the difference between flexibility and poor planning. 

2. Figure out how to leverage past expertise while also creating forums for present struggles. Older constituents bring with them a rich history of skilllsets worth leveraging. At the same time, they may be struggling because they've discovered "I have everything and still have nothing." One of the greatest church planters I ever knew began a church in a retirement community. The church thrived because, after all the golf, golf carts, pool halls, and community activities...there was still a God-shaped hole that needed filling.

3. Bridge demographic divides. Many future mission trips may have multiple generations in them. That's a good thing (particularly as it applies to church planting). But it also requires some groundrules for engagement. Think through those rules as they might apply to your church culture, mission, and what you import.

Mission Agencies
1. Funding. Get ready for major impact. The good news is that (at least with Christians) the upside may be greater than ever before. As the committed are being separated from the marginal, so too are the desires for investing in that which carries real impact.

2. Sending. You need a plan to utilize older Christians God is sending out on mission. Stat. And you need to prepare younger missionaries for navigating church planting that is multi-generational. Given most of the church planting models over the last thirty years, this will be a "new" way of thinking. Be savvy about how you prepare them for it and think in terms of psychographics, not demographics, to navigate it in a nuanced way.

3. Missiologically. We need to move away from an ecclesiology and missiological church planting strategy that celebrates or banks on youth culture/demographic planting. Simultaneously, we need to move away from the idea of the "traditional." Instead, we need a missiology that moves older gens to creative experimentation and younger gens to not rely so much on "cool" as an instrument for missiological impact.

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4 Zeihan, Peter. The End of the World is Just the Beginning (p. 202). HarperCollins. Kindle Edition.

3 Zeihan, Peter. The End of the World is Just the Beginning (p. 201). HarperCollins. Kindle Edition. 

2 Guillen, Mauro F.. 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything (p. 12). St. Martin's Publishing Group. Kindle Edition. 

1 Guillen, Mauro F.. 2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything (p. 20). St. Martin's Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.